Quantitative analysis of the age structured mathematical model of varicella spread in Slovakia
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Abstract
Varicella (chickenpox) is one of the most frequent infectious diseases in childhood. The aim of this work is to describe the incidence and susceptibility to varicella in Slovak population using the age-structured SIR (Susceptible - Infected - Recovered) model. The model was calibrated to estimate disease incidence in the Slovak population. Sensitivity analysis of transmission parameters and initial conditions were performed. This model is appropriate to describe the spread of disease and susceptibility of a large population in separate age groups.
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How to Cite
Zibolenová, J., Ševčovič, D., Baška, T., & Hudečková, H.
(2016).
Quantitative analysis of the age structured mathematical model of varicella spread in Slovakia.
Proceedings Of The Conference Algoritmy, , 285-291.
Retrieved from http://www.iam.fmph.uniba.sk/amuc/ojs/index.php/algoritmy/article/view/417/340
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References
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[Internet]. Bratislava: Public Health Authority of the Slovak Republic; 2015 [cited 2015 Apr 25] (In Slovak.) http://www.epis.sk/?lang=sk-SK
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[Online] 2009. [13. 8 2014.] http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/Publications/varicella report 2000 2007 euvacnet.pdf
[2] D. Dražan, Varicella, Pediatr Praxi. 2007, 8(6), 374-3788. (In Czech.)
[3] H. Hudečková, V. Švihrová, Vaccination. Martin: Osveta; 2013. (In Slovak.)
[4] European Centre for Disease Prevention and control. Varicella vaccine in the European Union. [Online] 2014. [1. 8 2014.] www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/Publications/Varicella-guidance-2014-consultation.pdf
[5] Annual report of the activities of the regional public health authorities in the Slovak Republic, Bratislava: Public Health Authority of the Slovak Republic; 2012 [cited 2015 Apr 25] (In Slovak). www. uvzsr.sk/index.php?option=com content&view=category&layout=blog&id=25&Itemid=34
[6] D. Guris, A.O. Jumaan, L. Mascola, B.M. Watson, J.X. Zhang, S.S. Chaves, et al.., Changing varicella epidemiology in active surveillance sites United States, 1995-2005, J Infect Dis. 2008 Mar 1;197 Suppl 2:S71-75.
[7] E. Malobická, H. Hudečková, Varicela, Pediatria. 2014;9(6):303-5. (In Slovak.)
[8] H. Hudečková, Š. Straka, S.Rusňáková, Epidemiological features and economic evaluation of a potential chickenpox vaccination strategy in Slovak Republic, Cent Eur J Public Health. 2000, Zv. 8, 4, s. 227-228.
[9] E.M. Halloran, S.L. Cochi, T.A. Lieu, M. Wharton, L. Fehrs, Theoretical Epidemiologic and Morbidity Effects of Routine Varicella Immunization of Preschool Children in the United States, Am. J. Epidemiol. 1994; 140(2): 81-104.
[10] J. Zibolenová, V. Szabóová, T. Baška, D. Ševčovič, H. Hudečková, Mathematical modeling of varicella spread in Slovakia, Cent Eur J Public Health. 2015; 23 (3): 227 232.
[11] M.J. Keeling, P. Rohani, Modelling infectious diseases in humans and animals, Princeton: Princeton University Press; 2008.
[12] E. Vynnycky, R. White, An introduction to infectious disease modelling, New York: Oxford University Press; 2010.
[13] S. Mishra, D.N. Fisman, M.C. Boily, The ABC of terms used in mathematical models of infectious diseases, J. Epidemiol Community Health. 2011;65:87-94.
[14] Z. Chladná, E. Moltchanova, Incentive to vaccinate: a synthesis of two approaches, Acta Math. Univ. Comenianae. 2015; 84(2): 283-296
[15] J. Zibolenová, D. Ševčovič, T. Baška, D. Rošková, E. Malobická, V. Szabóová, V. Švihrová, H. Hudečková, Mathematical modeling of infectious childhood diseases, Česko-Slovenská pediatrie, 2015; 70(4), 210-214.
[16] M. Brisson, W.J. Edmunds, N.J. Gay, B. Law, G. De Serres, Modelling the impact of immunization on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus, Epidemiol Infect. 2000 Dec;125(3):651-69.
[17] M. Brisson, W.J. Edmunds, Varicella vaccination in England and Wales: cost-utility analysis, Arch Dis Child. 2003 Oct;88(10):862-9.
[18] M. Brisson, W.J. Edmunds, B. Law, et al.., Epidemiology of varicella zoster virus infection in Canada and the United Kingdom, Epidemiology and Infection. 2001;127(2):305-314.
[19] Epidemiological Information System (EPIS)
[Internet]. Bratislava: Public Health Authority of the Slovak Republic; 2015 [cited 2015 Apr 25] (In Slovak.) http://www.epis.sk/?lang=sk-SK
[20] P. Bakoss, Epidemiology, Bratislava: Univerzita Komenskho Bratislava; 2005 (In Slovak).
[21] A. Nardone, F. de Ory, M. Carton, D. Cohen, P. van Damme, I. Davidkin, et al.., The comparative sero-epidemiology of varicela zoster virus in 11 countries in the European region, Vaccine. 2007 Nov 7;25(45):7866-72