Regional Growth and Traffic Accessibility in Central Europe
Wolgang Polasek
Institute for Advanced Studies
Vienna
Abstract:
We estimate the sensitivity of the regional growth forecast in the year
2002 resulting from changes in the travel time (TT) matrix. We use a
dynamic panel model with spatial effects where the spatial dimension
enters the explanatory variables in different ways. The spatial dimension
is based on geographical distance between 227 regions in central Europe
and the travel time matrix based on average train travel times. The
regressor variables are constructed by a) the average past growth rates,
where the travel times are used as weights, b) the average travel times
across all regions (made comparable by index construction), c) the gravity
potential variables based on GDP per capita, employment, productivity and
population and d) dummy variables and other socio-demographic variables.
We find that for the majority of the regions the relative differences in
growth for the year 2020 is rather small if the accessibility is improved.
But there are differences as how many regions will benefit from improved
train networks: GDP, employment, and population forecasts respond
differently.