| Ekonomická a finančná matematika http://www.iam.fmph.uniba.sk/studium/efm/forum-old/ |
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| Seminár NBS 8.6.2012 - Michal Franta (ČNB) http://www.iam.fmph.uniba.sk/studium/efm/forum-old/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=529 |
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| Autor: | matus.senaj [ Pon Jún 04, 2012 1:53 pm ] |
| Predmet príspevku: | Seminár NBS 8.6.2012 - Michal Franta (ČNB) |
Dobrý deň, rád by som Vás pozval na seminár odboru výskumu, ktorý sa uskutoční v piatok 8. júna 2012 o 13:00 v zasadačke na ôsmom poschodí v budove NBS. Michal Franta (ČNB) Tracking Monetary Fiscal Interactions Across Time and Space Abstract The fiscal position of many countries is worrying – and getting worse primarily due to demographic trends of aging populations. Should formally independent central bankers be concerned that observed fiscal excesses spill over to monetary policy, and jeopardize inflation outcomes? To provide some insights this paper tracks the interactions between fiscal and monetary policies in the data across time and space. It makes three main contributions. The first one is methodological: we combine two recent econometric procedures – time varying parameter vector autoregression with sign restrictions identification – and discuss the advantages of this approach. The second contribution is positive: we show how the policy interactions and other macroeconomic variables such as fiscal multipliers have changed over time in six industrial countries. The third contribution is normative: the paper highlights the role of institutional design of each policy on the outcomes of both policies. Specifically, it offers some tentative evidence that a stronger commitment of monetary policy (to a legislated target for average inflation) may indirectly help improve fiscal outcomes towards sustainability and reduce the probability of unpleasant monetarist arithmetic. This is because an explicit long–term monetary commitment gives the central bank stronger ground for not accommodating debt–financed fiscal shocks, which improves the incentives of governments. Účasť na seminári prosím potvrďte emailom na adrese matus.senaj@nbs.sk. Prajem pekný deň, Matúš Senaj Odbor výskumu Národná banka Slovenska tel.: 02 5787 2935 e-mail: matus.senaj@nbs.sk web: http://www.nbs.sk/sk/publikacie/vyskumne-studie http://ideas.repec.org/f/pse317.html |
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